This summer, I had the opportunity to speak with recruitment and marketing professionals from across the country at a conference with hundreds of institutions in attendance. One conversation stuck with me most. In between keynote sessions, an admissions counselor said, “We hear so much about what we’re doing wrong and what we need to be afraid of. Why don’t we ever hear about what we’re doing right?”
That earnest, albeit casual, comment sparked some reflection. Yes, there are serious things happening that directly impact our enrollment goals and institutional health. There is a lot we do need to work on and plan for. But as we approach yet another enrollment cliff (that they sure as heck don’t let us forget), we should also take the time to identify – and maybe even celebrate – what we got right the first time.
We Know What’s Coming
You’ve heard it before, and you’ll hear it again: There aren’t as many high schoolers as there used to be.
We’ve already navigated the first “demographic cliff,” which forced us to adapt in real time to find new solutions and opportunities to help bridge the gap in the traditional learner pool. Some of those challenges were things we could plan for. Others, we couldn’t have predicted until we were already knee-deep in them.
Undergraduate enrollment took a significant hit over the last decade, with both overall and first-time enrollment declining. But over the last few years, we’ve started to see enrollment stabilize, and even grow. Fall 2025 enrollment was up 1% overall, with undergraduate enrollment up 1.2%.
But that growth isn’t because the traditional-age learner pool suddenly got bigger. It’s because we changed how we do things:
- Our recruitment footprints got bigger and more creative.
- Adult learner recruitment became a real strategic pillar, not a side hustle.
- B2B, employer, and workforce partnerships scaled up fast.
And yet, even with all that adaptation, much of it has been in service of buying ourselves time before the next demographic wave.
While the number of high school graduates is expected to remain relatively steady for the next several years, a second, more significant decline is projected to follow. By 2041, the number of high school graduates is expected to be down roughly 13% from its 2025 peak.
What We Got Right
Through all of those challenges, one clear win emerged: non-traditional learners are here to stay, and we know how to reach them.
Institutions that built a stronger infrastructure for nontraditional learners during the first cliff were better positioned to weather the storm. They invested in more specific programs, expanded who they were recruiting, and moved away from a one-size-fits-all approach to both the student experience and outreach. The opportunity is still very much there:
- There are still millions of potential learners to reach: More than 37 million working-age Americans have some college experience but no credential – and that number continues to grow (more data to come after the next census).
- Demand for shorter, more flexible credentials is growing: Enrollment in short-term credential programs grew 6.6% in fall 2025, continuing the momentum from the year before and outpacing growth in traditional bachelor’s programs.
- Learners are looking for ways to make their previous experience count: Credit for prior learning can have a meaningful impact on completion while also helping students save time and money.
Non-credit, degree completion, short-term credential, and credit-for-prior-learning (CPL) programs aren’t a repackaged version of the undergrad funnel. They’re a different funnel, for a different learner, with different needs, goals, and barriers. When we treat them as an add-on to existing recruitment infrastructure, they tend to underperform. When we treat them as their own discipline, we see traction.
| Motivators | Traditional Undergrads (18-22) | Non-Traditional Adult Learners |
|---|---|---|
| PRIMARY MOTIVATION | Campus experience, social life, and degree prestige | Career advancement and earning potential – 39% cite career growth as their top driver |
| DECISION TIMELINE | Compressed into a single senior-year application cycle | Longer, research-heavy window – often years in the making before ever applying |
| COST SENSITIVITY | Weighs aid packages against prestige and campus fit | 60% have eliminated a school over cost alone needs fast, transparent ROI |
| SCHEDULE NEEDS | Full-time, daytime courses on a fixed fall/spring term | Evening, async, and stackable formats built around work and family |
| PROCESS FAMILIARITY | Guided by high school counselors, campus visits, and parents | Often years removed from a classroom – navigating aid and enrollment alone |
| PRIOR EXPERIENCE | Little coursework or life experience to credit toward a degree | Work, military, or prior coursework – credit for prior learning builds trust and cuts time-to-completion by 9-14 months |
| WHAT EARNS ATTENTION | Authenticity, rankings, and ROI | Direct answers on cost, time, transfer credit, and job outcomes |
How to Carry It Forward
Step one is making sure your programs – from class times and support services to faculty and staff – are actually built for students who are undeniably different from the traditional learner. Rolling out marketing for a half-baked student experience is a disservice to these learners and, in the long run, will likely cause more harm than good.
Once those programs and offerings are in place, the next step is to think about how these students will find you and how you’ll keep them engaged, knowing that their decision-making process can take time and often comes with very real barriers along the way. Here’s what we’ve seen drive success:
- Show up organically in the search engines and AI platforms these learners are actually using: Take a look at your program pages, application pages, and website overall to make sure your content and structure are optimized for how people are searching today, whether that’s Google AI Overviews, tools like ChatGPT and Claude, or even voice assistants like Siri and Alexa.
- Reach learners with creative that actually speaks to them: Photos of 18-year-olds and generic statements about “aspirations” and “dreaming bigger” aren’t going to cut it. These learners need to see people who look like them and messaging that makes them stop and think, “Okay, this might actually be worth my time” or even, “Wait, I can do this.”
- Follow up with them in the ways they actually want to be contacted: These learners may need a different approach than your traditional students. Think about not just how you’re reaching out, but also how often and for how long. Their decision-making process can take months, if not years, and they have plenty of competing priorities that can make it hard to respond right away. Just because they haven’t gotten back to you yet doesn’t mean they’re no longer interested.
Getting Started
If there’s one thing we can take away from the last several years, it’s that we can adapt. We’ve already proven that by expanding who we recruit, building new programs and pathways, and finding better ways to connect with learners who don’t fit the traditional mold.
If you’re evaluating whether your nontraditional program outreach is built around how these learners actually search and make decisions, we can help you figure out where to start. Whether it’s a quick audit of your noncredit program pages to identify what to prioritize or a secret shopping exercise for your CPL drip campaign, we’d love to take a look at what you have in place and help you build on the momentum you already have.
